Over the weekend, the situation in the Middle East heated up sharply.

According to the latest news, the United States quickly deployed warships in place to "protect" Israeli and American troops in the region, hoping to prevent Iran from launching a "direct attack" on Israel. A US Department of Defense official revealed that the United States is sending more military units to Israel to strengthen regional deterrence and strengthen the protection of US troops.

According to the latest report of CNN, the United States has observed that Iran is moving military assets, including drones and cruise missiles, which indicates that "Iran may be preparing to attack Israeli targets from its own territory". One of the people familiar with the matter said that the United States observed that Iran had prepared as many as 100 cruise missiles.

Facing the risk of further escalation of the situation in the Middle East, the global market is becoming even more tense. Among them, the international oil price fluctuated greatly, and the global benchmark Brent crude oil once exceeded $92/barrel; Wall Street’s so-called "panic indicator" VIX index rose to its highest level since last October.

The United States quickly deployed warships in place.

On April 13th, the reference news quoted the website of The Wall Street Journal as saying that the United States quickly deployed warships to "protect" Israeli and American troops in the region, hoping to prevent Iran from launching a "direct attack" on Israel.

Earlier, a person familiar with the matter warned about the time and place where Iran might launch an attack.

It is reported that the commander of the US Central Command, General Curilla, discussed the possible Iranian attack with Israeli Defense Minister galante in Israel on the 12th.

According to the Israeli Defense Ministry statement, galante said: "We are prepared to defend ourselves on the ground and in the air, and work closely with our partners. We know how to respond."

U.S. officials said that the U.S. action included the redeployment of two destroyers, one of which was already in the area and the other was redeployed to the area. American officials also said that at least one of them was equipped with the Aegis missile defense system.

According to the US Army Times website reported on April 12, US officials confirmed on April 12 that in the face of reports that Iran may launch an attack on Israel, the Ministry of National Defense is mobilizing more troops and equipment to bases in the Middle East.

A Pentagon official said that these transfers are aimed at "strengthening regional deterrence and improving the protection capability of the US military". The Pentagon did not disclose information about the number of troops or the specific assets transferred to the area.

Earlier in the day, White House national security spokesman John Kirby also refused to disclose the specific details of the changes in the US military posture in the region, but said that government officials are paying close attention to the situation.

Kirby said that the United States has taken concrete actions to "ensure" that the US troops stationed in the region "make proper preparations" in the event of an attack.

At present, the United States has deployed about 40,000 military personnel in the Middle East. Another 1,000 people are going to the area to help build a floating pier near the coast of Gaza.

According to reports, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that he would retaliate against Israel’s air strike in Damascus on April 1, which killed at least 13 people, including a senior Iranian officer.

In addition, the State Council is also taking urgent action to issue safety warnings to all government employees and their families of the US Embassy in Jerusalem.

The Israeli military said that if the Iranian side retaliates against the air strikes on Iranian consular offices in Syria, the Israeli army will fight back. On the afternoon of the 12th, US President Biden warned Iran "not" to take action, and emphasized the US security commitment to Israel, saying that Iran would not succeed.

In the current tense situation, Hezbollah armed forces in Lebanon took the lead. On the evening of April 12, local time, rocket warnings sounded several times in northern Israel, and the "Iron Dome" defense system intercepted several times. According to Iranian media, "at least 50 rockets" were launched from southern Lebanon to northeastern Israel.

The Israeli army statement said, "About 40 rockets were fired from Lebanon to northern Israel, some were intercepted, and the rest landed in an open area. There are no reports of casualties." The Israeli army also claimed to have shot down two unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) loaded with explosives launched by Hezbollah in Lebanon at Israel.

Iran warning

On April 13th, the World Wide Web quoted the American news website "Axios" as saying that three American officials told the media that Iran sent the following message to Biden’s government through several Arab countries this week: If the United States intervenes in the conflict between Israel and Iran, the US troops stationed in the region will be hit.

A US Department of Defense official said that the United States is sending more military units to Israel to strengthen regional deterrence and strengthen the protection of US troops.

According to the report, a senior American official said that the United States insisted that it did not participate in the air strike. In this regard, the message conveyed by the Iranian side is, "Whoever attacks us, we will attack him, so don’t conflict with us, and we won’t conflict with you."

An American official told Axios that from the information received through several Arab countries, it is not clear whether Iran is threatening to attack the US military if it helps Israel intercept Iranian missiles, or whether it will only attack the US military if it participates in Israel’s retaliatory actions.

According to the US official, the overall assessment of the US intelligence community is that Iran will only attack the US military if the United States and Israel jointly fight back.

"prepared 100 missiles"

On April 13th, local time, according to the latest news from CNN, people familiar with American intelligence revealed that the United States observed that Iran was moving military assets, including drones and cruise missiles, which indicated that "Iran may be preparing to attack Israeli targets from its own territory".

According to the report, it is uncertain whether Iran really launched the first round of attacks from its own territory, or whether it is deliberately posing in an attempt to prevent Israel or the United States from launching a possible counterattack against its territory.

One of the people familiar with the matter said that the United States observed that Iran had prepared as many as 100 cruise missiles.

The report also said that a person familiar with the matter said that Iran hoped that their attack on Israel would look "significant" in retaliation for Israel’s attack on the consulate of the Iranian Embassy in Syria last week. But at the same time, Tehran also wants to avoid being involved in direct wars with Israel and the United States. That’s why American intelligence agencies have assessed that Iran may also use agents to launch the first attack.

CNN also said in another report that a senior government official and a person familiar with the matter revealed that the United States currently expects Iran to attack multiple targets in Israel, and Iranian agents may also participate in the attack. The targets may include targets in Israel and around the region.

The global market is tense

With the warming of risk aversion, the price of gold has hit record highs recently, which makes Wall Street "doubt life".

Among them, spot gold rose by 1.3% this week, that is, it rose by $30.5 per ounce. At one point this week, it rose to $2,431.53, and then it fell back. The latest price was $2,344.25, with a cumulative increase of 14% this year.

At the same time, the fluctuation of international oil prices is also intensifying. Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, once broke through 92 US dollars/barrel and jumped to the highest level since October last year. Since the beginning of this year, oil prices have soared by 19%.

The rising tension in the Middle East has disrupted the oil market. Ed Yardeni, the founder of Yardeni Research, a well-known wall street leader, pointed out that oil prices may reach $100 under the influence of this situation, and the situation in the Middle East has also weakened the upward momentum of US stocks.

The U.S. stock market also suffered a selling tide overnight. At the close, the Dow fell by 1.24% and fell below 38,000 points for the first time since January 24. The S&P 500 index fell by 1.46%, the biggest drop since Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s speech on January 31 hit the expected interest rate cut in March. The Nasdaq fell 1.62%, the biggest drop since March 5.

As the tension between Israel and Iran worsens, Yardeni Research analysts say that if there is a real conflict between Israel and Iran, this may be the top of the US stock market.

It is worth mentioning that Wall Street’s so-called "panic indicator" VIX index rose to its highest level since October last year, and analysts warned that the market has always underestimated geopolitical risks.

Editor: Lin Gen

Proofreading: Yao Yuan

　　Yesterday, the State Council held a press conference, and Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, was invited to introduce the national economy in the first three quarters of 2023.

　　At the meeting, he disclosed data showing that, according to preliminary accounting, the gross domestic product in the first three quarters was 91,302.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. "Overall, the national economy continued to recover in the first three quarters. However, we must also see that the economic recovery still needs to be consolidated. "

　　The contribution rate of consumption expenditure to economic growth is 83.2%

　　Sheng Laiyun said that in the first three quarters, the national economy continued to recover and steadily advanced to good and high-quality development.

　　According to preliminary accounting, the GDP in the first three quarters was 91,302.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. Quarterly, GDP increased by 4.5% in the first quarter, 6.3% in the second quarter and 4.9% in the third quarter. From the ring comparison, the GDP in the third quarter increased by 1.3%.

　　Among them, in the first three quarters, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.0% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points faster than that in the first half of the year. From January to August, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide decreased by 11.7% year-on-year, which was 5.1 percentage points narrower than that in the first half of the year. In the first three quarters, the added value of service industry increased by 6.0% year-on-year.

　　In the first three quarters, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 34,210.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%. In September, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 5.5% year-on-year, 0.9 percentage points faster than the previous month, and the growth rate accelerated for two consecutive months. In addition, in the first three quarters, the national consumer price (CPI) rose by 0.4% year on year.

　　As for the "troika" of economic growth, he explained that the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth in the first three quarters was 83.2%, driving GDP growth by 4.4 percentage points; The contribution rate of total capital formation to economic growth is 29.8%, which drives GDP growth by 1.6 percentage points; The contribution rate of import and export of goods and services to economic growth is -13.0%, which pulls down GDP by 0.7 percentage points.

　　Imports and exports to countries that jointly built the "Belt and Road" increased by 3.1%

　　Regarding the investment situation, Sheng Laiyun said that in the first three quarters, the national fixed assets investment (excluding farmers) was 375.035 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%; After deducting the price factor, it increased by 6.0% year-on-year. Among them, investment in real estate development decreased by 9.1%. The national commercial housing sales area was 848.06 million square meters, down 7.5% year-on-year; The sales of commercial housing reached 8,907 billion yuan, down 4.6%.

　　In view of the development of the real estate industry, Sheng Laiyun emphasized that from 2003 to 2020, China’s real estate continued to maintain a high-speed growth, which made important contributions to the high-speed growth and medium-high-speed growth of China’s economy in that period. However, real estate, like other industries, can’t keep high growth continuously, and it’s normal to make adjustments. This adjustment is conducive to eliminating backward production capacity, structural optimization, and especially to the high-quality development of the real estate industry. The sustained and high-quality development of real estate still has strong support. Judging from the development stage of China, we are still in the stage of economic transformation and upgrading and high-quality development, and our rigid demand and improvement demand are still relatively large.

　　Regarding the import and export situation, Sheng Laiyun said that in the first three quarters, the total import and export volume of goods was 308.021 billion yuan, down 0.2% year-on-year. Among them, the export was 176025 billion yuan, an increase of 0.6%; Imports reached 13,199.6 billion yuan, down 1.2%. Imports and exports offset each other, with a trade surplus of 4,402.9 billion yuan. Among them, the import and export of countries that jointly built the "Belt and Road" increased by 3.1%, accounting for 46.5% of the total import and export.

　　The improvement of population quality provides guarantee for high-quality development

　　The data shows that in the first three quarters, the national urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.3%. In September, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.0%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, falling for two consecutive months. In the first three quarters, the per capita disposable income of national residents was 29,398 yuan, a nominal increase of 6.3% year-on-year; After deducting the price factor, it actually increased by 5.9%.

　　On the issue of population, he also responded that the total population grew negatively for the first time last year, but our total population is still relatively large, especially the working-age population is nearly 900 million.

　　In addition, the quality of the population is really improving now. "According to the latest data, the average length of education of the working-age population has reached 10.93 years, nearly 11 years. Although the population has declined, the quality of our population has improved faster, which provides a good resource guarantee for the high-quality development of China’s economy. "

　　Text/Reporter Yan Li Coordinator/Xu Feng

　　Photo courtesy/vision china

　　analyse

　　I am very confident in achieving the expected goal for the whole year.

　　As for the economic performance in the first three quarters, Sheng Laiyun explained that the overall recovery continued to improve, especially from the situation in the third quarter, and the overall recovery of economic recovery became more obvious.

　　He said that GDP grew by 4.9% in the third quarter, which was slower than the year-on-year growth rate in the second quarter, mainly because of the rise of the comparative base last year. In terms of chain growth rate, it increased by 1.3% in the third quarter of this year, 0.8 percentage points faster than that in the second quarter, and the growth continued to recover. "This growth rate is among the best in major international economies, both year-on-year growth rate and cumulative growth rate in the first three quarters."

　　He also mentioned that foreign trade was better than expected. Judging from the actual operation, the decline in the third quarter was significantly narrowed, which was better than expected, which provided important support for the stable recovery of the economy. In addition, during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays just past, both the number of people traveling, tourism consumption, accommodation and catering income data maintained a strong growth momentum, which showed that the activity of China’s economic market increased and the potential and vitality of market consumption were highlighted.

　　He also disclosed that according to our preliminary calculation, if we want to achieve the expected target for the whole year, as long as it increases by more than 4.4% in the fourth quarter, we can guarantee to achieve the expected target of about 5% for the whole year. "From this perspective, we are very confident in achieving the expected goals for the whole year."