Yesterday, the State Council held a press conference, and Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, was invited to introduce the national economy in the first three quarters of 2023.

　　At the meeting, he disclosed data showing that, according to preliminary accounting, the gross domestic product in the first three quarters was 91,302.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. "Overall, the national economy continued to recover in the first three quarters. However, we must also see that the economic recovery still needs to be consolidated. "

　　The contribution rate of consumption expenditure to economic growth is 83.2%

　　Sheng Laiyun said that in the first three quarters, the national economy continued to recover and steadily advanced to good and high-quality development.

　　According to preliminary accounting, the GDP in the first three quarters was 91,302.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. Quarterly, GDP increased by 4.5% in the first quarter, 6.3% in the second quarter and 4.9% in the third quarter. From the ring comparison, the GDP in the third quarter increased by 1.3%.

　　Among them, in the first three quarters, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.0% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points faster than that in the first half of the year. From January to August, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide decreased by 11.7% year-on-year, which was 5.1 percentage points narrower than that in the first half of the year. In the first three quarters, the added value of service industry increased by 6.0% year-on-year.

　　In the first three quarters, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 34,210.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%. In September, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 5.5% year-on-year, 0.9 percentage points faster than the previous month, and the growth rate accelerated for two consecutive months. In addition, in the first three quarters, the national consumer price (CPI) rose by 0.4% year on year.

　　As for the "troika" of economic growth, he explained that the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth in the first three quarters was 83.2%, driving GDP growth by 4.4 percentage points; The contribution rate of total capital formation to economic growth is 29.8%, which drives GDP growth by 1.6 percentage points; The contribution rate of import and export of goods and services to economic growth is -13.0%, which pulls down GDP by 0.7 percentage points.

　　Imports and exports to countries that jointly built the "Belt and Road" increased by 3.1%

　　Regarding the investment situation, Sheng Laiyun said that in the first three quarters, the national fixed assets investment (excluding farmers) was 375.035 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%; After deducting the price factor, it increased by 6.0% year-on-year. Among them, investment in real estate development decreased by 9.1%. The national commercial housing sales area was 848.06 million square meters, down 7.5% year-on-year; The sales of commercial housing reached 8,907 billion yuan, down 4.6%.

　　In view of the development of the real estate industry, Sheng Laiyun emphasized that from 2003 to 2020, China’s real estate continued to maintain a high-speed growth, which made important contributions to the high-speed growth and medium-high-speed growth of China’s economy in that period. However, real estate, like other industries, can’t keep high growth continuously, and it’s normal to make adjustments. This adjustment is conducive to eliminating backward production capacity, structural optimization, and especially to the high-quality development of the real estate industry. The sustained and high-quality development of real estate still has strong support. Judging from the development stage of China, we are still in the stage of economic transformation and upgrading and high-quality development, and our rigid demand and improvement demand are still relatively large.

　　Regarding the import and export situation, Sheng Laiyun said that in the first three quarters, the total import and export volume of goods was 308.021 billion yuan, down 0.2% year-on-year. Among them, the export was 176025 billion yuan, an increase of 0.6%; Imports reached 13,199.6 billion yuan, down 1.2%. Imports and exports offset each other, with a trade surplus of 4,402.9 billion yuan. Among them, the import and export of countries that jointly built the "Belt and Road" increased by 3.1%, accounting for 46.5% of the total import and export.

　　The improvement of population quality provides guarantee for high-quality development

　　The data shows that in the first three quarters, the national urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.3%. In September, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.0%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, falling for two consecutive months. In the first three quarters, the per capita disposable income of national residents was 29,398 yuan, a nominal increase of 6.3% year-on-year; After deducting the price factor, it actually increased by 5.9%.

　　On the issue of population, he also responded that the total population grew negatively for the first time last year, but our total population is still relatively large, especially the working-age population is nearly 900 million.

　　In addition, the quality of the population is really improving now. "According to the latest data, the average length of education of the working-age population has reached 10.93 years, nearly 11 years. Although the population has declined, the quality of our population has improved faster, which provides a good resource guarantee for the high-quality development of China’s economy. "

　　Text/Reporter Yan Li Coordinator/Xu Feng

　　Photo courtesy/vision china

　　analyse

　　I am very confident in achieving the expected goal for the whole year.

　　As for the economic performance in the first three quarters, Sheng Laiyun explained that the overall recovery continued to improve, especially from the situation in the third quarter, and the overall recovery of economic recovery became more obvious.

　　He said that GDP grew by 4.9% in the third quarter, which was slower than the year-on-year growth rate in the second quarter, mainly because of the rise of the comparative base last year. In terms of chain growth rate, it increased by 1.3% in the third quarter of this year, 0.8 percentage points faster than that in the second quarter, and the growth continued to recover. "This growth rate is among the best in major international economies, both year-on-year growth rate and cumulative growth rate in the first three quarters."

　　He also mentioned that foreign trade was better than expected. Judging from the actual operation, the decline in the third quarter was significantly narrowed, which was better than expected, which provided important support for the stable recovery of the economy. In addition, during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays just past, both the number of people traveling, tourism consumption, accommodation and catering income data maintained a strong growth momentum, which showed that the activity of China’s economic market increased and the potential and vitality of market consumption were highlighted.

　　He also disclosed that according to our preliminary calculation, if we want to achieve the expected target for the whole year, as long as it increases by more than 4.4% in the fourth quarter, we can guarantee to achieve the expected target of about 5% for the whole year. "From this perspective, we are very confident in achieving the expected goals for the whole year."