International Bureau： The US government has avoided the ＂shutdown＂, but a bigger crisis is still ahead.

　　BEIJING, Oct. 1 (Sweet Chen Caixia) On September 30, local time, at the last minute of the end of the US federal government’s fiscal year, the two houses of Congress finally passed a short-term expenditure bill to provide funds for the US government until November 17, thus avoiding the government’s "closure".

　　The original intention of the US Congress in charge of the "money bag" was to limit the arbitrary spending of government departments, but now it has become a "bargaining chip" for the two parties to seize political interests.

　　The United States is moving towards a "dangerous situation". It seems that behind one crisis, another crisis is approaching.

　　"Man-made crisis"

　　The U.S. government avoids lockout

　　On the evening of September 30, local time, the House of Representatives and the Senate of the US Congress successively voted to pass a short-term expenditure bill and sent it to President Biden for signature, thus preventing the government from "closing the door".

　　The short-term spending bill provides the federal government with 45 days of short-term spending. At the last minute, the bill added the natural disaster relief funds requested by the White House, but did not include additional assistance to Ukraine and strengthening border security.

　　In response, Biden said in a statement, "Tonight, the bipartisan majority in the House and Senate voted to keep the government running, avoiding an unnecessary crisis and bringing unnecessary pain to millions of hard-working Americans."

　　But he also criticized that this was a "man-made crisis" that could have been avoided a few months ago.

　　Generally speaking, the federal government of the United States operates normally, and the required funds are authorized by the appropriation bill every fiscal year. If Congress fails to pass the bill, government spending will be blocked and some functions will have to stop. The chain reaction of the government’s "closing the door" also endangers all walks of life: more than 4 million American soldiers and government workers will not be paid, and two-thirds of the employees of the tax bureau may be forced to take vacations.

　　The two parties are constantly fighting.

　　The "closed door" crisis will be staged again in November.

　　Recently, the two parties in the United States have been fighting over the appropriation case for the new fiscal year and have been deadlocked several times, which has triggered a "closed door" crisis. Specific differences include the size of the budget for the next 12 months, continued assistance to Ukraine, and immigration control on the US-Mexico border.

　　What is even more difficult is that not only are there serious differences between the Democratic and Republican parties, but cooperation is difficult, and the Republican Party is also in a mess.

　　Hard-line conservatives in the Republican Party demand that the government’s disposable expenditure ceiling in fiscal year 2024 be reduced by another $120 billion on the basis of the $1.59 trillion negotiated between Speaker McCarthy and President Biden. On September 29th, the House of Representatives controlled by the Republican Party even defeated McCarthy’s provisional appropriation bill, which made the government "close the door" again and again.

　　Now, although the latest short-term spending bill promoted by McCarthy was approved in Congress, the Associated Press believes that the "closed door" crisis has only been "temporarily" alleviated.

　　According to the report, in order to get the short-term spending bill approved, Republican McCarthy was forced to rely on the Democratic Party and abandoned the hard-line conservatives of the Republican Party. This means that he is likely to face a motion to try to remove the Speaker of the House of Representatives.

　　The National Broadcasting Corporation (NBC) also commented that the US Congress must resolve its differences before November 17, but it is not clear whether they will do so. We are likely to get into the present situation again in November.

　　Political calculations are full,

　　The United States is heading for a "dangerous situation"

　　This is not the first time that the US government has faced a "closed door" crisis. Since 1976, there have been 21 cases in which the U.S. government closed down due to the shortage of funds, including 10 cases in which government employees were forced to take unpaid leave after 1980.

　　The longest one happened in 2018-2019, when President Trump and Congressional Democrats were deadlocked on the issue of building the border wall, which led to the failure of the government budget. At that time, some governments stopped working for 35 days, running through the whole holiday season.

　　Schumer, the majority leader of the Senate and a Democrat, pointed out in September that if the government "closes the door", it would be the fault of the Republican "political game" in the House of Representatives.

　　He said, "The only way to pass the budget is bipartisan cooperation & HELIP; … A single political party cannot complete this work, especially if it is controlled by an extremist group of 30 to 40 people. "

　　Republicans in the House of Representatives targeted the attack on the high debt of the United States and blamed it on Democrats. Senator John Kennedy, Republican of Louisiana, said, "Democrats know that spending and debt accumulation are out of control, but they still refuse to consider Republican suggestions."

　　Reuters commented that the differences between the Senate and the House of Representatives are hard to close, and this "partisan deadlock mode" has repeatedly pushed the United States into a dangerous situation, which is constantly damaging the credibility of the United States.

　　Bloomberg economists believe that once the government stops for a long time, the Republican Party will be accused, which is beneficial to Biden’s re-election. However, if the Democratic Party agrees to the demand of Republican hardliners to cut federal spending sharply, it will have an impact on the economy in 2024, and the ruling Democratic Party will become the object of blame by voters.

　　US Treasury Secretary warns!

　　Another crisis is approaching.

　　In fact, the financial problems of the US federal government go far beyond this. In recent years, the "snowball" of American debt has been getting bigger and bigger. According to the The New York Times website on September 18th, the total national debt of the United States exceeded $33 trillion for the first time that day, once again ushered in a "dangerous milestone".

　　On September 29th, US Treasury Secretary Yellen warned that the government’s "closing the door" would lead to the idleness of many enterprises and children’s projects, thus "damaging" the economic operation of the United States and possibly delaying the promotion of major infrastructure. Unless Congress raises the debt ceiling, it is very likely that there will be a "historic financial crisis" and an "economic disaster" in the United States.

　　Moody’s Investors Service, an international rating agency, also warned on September 25 that the "shutdown" of the US federal government would have a negative impact on the US credit rating. Previously, Fitch Ratings, an international rating agency, downgraded the default rating of long-term foreign currency issuers in the United States from AAA to AA+.

　　Larry Fink, president of BlackRock, a world-renowned fund management company, lambasted American politicians for letting the government shut down, which was "absurd" and "irrational" and undermined the position of the United States in the eyes of investors.

　　According to the weekly New Republic, American politicians regard the debt ceiling as a political stick and the global economy as collateral. This "stupid game" may disrupt the global economy.